The End of Cheap Food

"The End of Cheap Food" is an article by Gwynne Dyer that says that the era of cheap food is over. Before WWII most families in developed countries spent a third or more of their income on food. After WWII a series of radical changes caused a steep fall in food prices; food took up only a tenth of the income of the global middle class. Gwynne Dyer predicts that the proportion spent on food will rise back up to a quarter within the decade and may go much higher. He attributes this to the convergence of three separate factors:

1) Rising demand due to the growth of the global population, and people starting to eat more meat. With more people eating meat, more grain will be required for livestock, so the price of both grain and meat will rise.

2) The mania for bio-fuels is shifting huge amounts of land out of food production.

3) Global warming will hit crop yields hard. Scientists have quantified that an increase in temperature of two degrees celcius could mean a 12 to 20 percent fall in global food production.

Gynne Dyer predicts that the price of food relative to average incomes is heading to early 19th century levels and will not come down again in our lifetimes.


I read this article from John L. Petersen's TAI Alert. Visit The Arlington Institute website for more research into the future.